نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار مدیریت و فناوری نرم دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر
2 دانشجوی دکتری علوم دفاعی راهبردی دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی
3 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت دولتی دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
4 کارشناس ارشد فناوری اطلاعات دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Rapid and extensive changes in today's world, contributes to the complexity and uncertainty in the formation of the future. The more a system or organization collaborates with its environment, the more uncertainties will become, thus the need for futures-study and thoughtful approach will increase.
Conversion of the I.R.I Navy from a purely defensive force into a strategic one has raised and highlighted it as an effective component in Iran's future position in the world and especially in West Asia. The presence of this force in faraway seas, the necessity of higher interaction with ultra-regional countries and the effects of the new mission environment, makes it necessary to monitor and identify various trends prevailing in the global emerging patterns in order to identify possible futures ahead and more importantly, to build a desirable future.
In this study, the case and field research method was used to design a suitable futures-study model for the I.R.I Strategic Navy. For this purpose, the theories proposed by the experts in this field and the defense futures-study systems of some influential countries and domestic organizations were surveyed. Then, a conceptual model was obtained through considering the conditions and facilities as well as the operational space and domain of I.R.I Navy. For the closer adaptation of the conceptual model with the existing facts, some senior commanders of the Navy were interviewed, and then, through a questionnaire and a thorough review and modification in the validity and reliability assessment phase, the local pattern of Strategic Navy Futures-Studies involving four basic dimensions and ten components was explained.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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