Causes of Future Wars: A Dynamic Analysis by Means of Dynamic-system Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Higher National Defense University

2 PhD Student of Future Studies, Faculty of Modern Science and Technology, University of Tehran

Abstract

This study aims to review the causes of the future wars by means of Systems Thinking and develop a model which demonstrates the application of the former and modeling dynamic systems in such a way to analyse the causes behind the future wars. Doing so, it reviews 59 articles on future wars which have been published in foreign journals in the period between 1969 and 2013 upon content-analysis. The analysis of dynamic systems is a technique which provides the modeling of complex and non-linear systems. Furthermore, a dynamic model is applied to demonstrate the causative relations amongst recognized factors. Meanwhile, the outcome of the study reveals that change in balance of power, terrorism, uncertainty and security problems, shortage of resources, modern technologies, political problems and civil wars, border disputes, nationalism, religion, economic competition, globalization, material interests, prestige and honor in international scene, mass migration, population growth, animosity and climate changes play a key part in the foresight of future wars. It is worth noting this paper is the 1st study which by means of dynamic-system approach deals with the modeling of future wars.

Keywords

References

فهرست منابع
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Strategic Defense Studies
Volume 13, Issue 59
All articles in this issue are research.
June 2015
Pages 49-72

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