Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Futures Studies Group, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2
Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Futures studies entail numerous implications for military intelligence organizations, assisting managers, analysts, and intellectual stakeholders within these institutions in updating their concepts, methods, and theoretical frameworks through the application of this relatively new and dynamic field of knowledge. This study aims to support military intelligence organizations in renewing various components of their structures by identifying and analyzing the implications of futures studies. Accordingly, it seeks to answer the following question: What are the implications of futures studies for military intelligence organizations? The present research is applied in nature and adopts a qualitative approach. Data were collected through library-based research and semi-structured interviews. The primary method of data analysis was thematic analysis, conducted within the methodological framework of implication analysis.
Overall, the findings indicate that, given the core mission of military intelligence organizations—namely, fulfilling future-oriented military intelligence requirements—futures studies can support the intelligence cycle that underpins these organizations’ activities by offering specific methodologies and highlighting key underlying assumptions. The most significant implications of futures studies for these organizations are, respectively, observed in the stages of planning and direction of the intelligence cycle, analysis and production, dissemination, and integration. Furthermore, the implications of futures studies are predominantly associated with its methodological tools, among which scenario planning, the Delphi method, and trend analysis exhibit the greatest relevance and impact, respectively.
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