Identifying future scenarios of geopolitical developments in the Southern Caucasus in the horizon of 2035

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Professor at National Defense University

2 Assistant Professor, National Defense University

3 Graduate of Political Science from Shahid Beheshti University and researcher at the National Defense University

4 Graduate of Strategic Defense Sciences, National Defense University

Abstract

Scenario-based Policy-Making as a new policy-making method has been developed for this purpose so that decision-makers can design different policies by identifying possible scenarios for the future of a phenomenon. Hence, in addition to increasing the readiness and speed of reaction in crises, we will probably face a reduction in the cost of implementing the policy. This technique, which is used more in fluid and dynamic environments, has been raised in the field of strategic studies and international relations. In the meantime, considering the importance of Iran's surrounding environment, the changing conditions in the Southern Caucasus and the role-playing of various actors in this region, the need to identify the future scenarios of this region is well felt for Tehran. In this regard, this article tries to develope the future scenarios for geopolitical developments in the Southern Caucasus in a 10-years horizon. For this purpose, the Pedram-Ahmadian scenario-writing method was used and the data which is been collected from the open source documents was validated in expert panels. Based on the mentioned method, 6 regional-peripheral actors and 4 extra-regional actors were identified and the drivers affecting their action options were also categorized into 6 sections. Then, by crossing the possible interactions between any pair of uncertainties, we found two key uncertainties in the future of the Southern Caucasus; "Internal stability/instability in the Caucasus" and "West/East as first (or dominant) actor". Based on this, 4 scenarios were identified, in which the “acting of eastern powers” and “stability in the political units of the Southern Caucasus” region were introduced as the ideal scenario for the Islamic Republic of Iran in the 10year horizon.

Keywords

Strategic Defense Studies
Volume 23, Issue 100
July 2025
Pages 215-235

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