Simulation of emergency evacuation scenarios in overcrowded places during crisis

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Crisis Management Department, Non-Active Defense Faculty, Malik Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran

2 Assistant Professor of the Department of Crisis Management, Faculty of Non-Active Defense, Malik Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran

3 Doctoral student of the Department of Crisis Management, Faculty of Non-Active Defense, Malik Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to model the effective variables and scenarios of emergency evacuation during crises such as war and earthquake. The research method is descriptive-analytical in terms of problem solving and explanatory in terms of results. Random sampling method and Cochran's formula was used. Analysis has been done based on Wizard, Any Logic and Anp software. 8 scenarios with a maximum of two incompatible factors are considered for modeling in Any Logic. The critical scenario obtained from the simulation was selected and the solutions were checked in the Anp software. Previous researches have examined the problem from a one-dimensional view. To select solutions and scenarios, we have used decision-making techniques and combined them with simulation. The results of Any Logic show that the fifth scenario is more critical, and the results of Anp show that the criteria of adding doors and removing obstacles with weights of 0.287 and 0.262 have the highest rank. According to the normalized weights in the sub-criteria, in the criterion of time, the escape time in the corridors and stairs (with a weight of 0.65), in the cost, executive dimension (with a weight of 0.608), in the feasibility, the ability to drive (with weight 0.8), in environmental effects, impact on the public (with a weight of 0.705) and in traffic guarantee, traffic management (with a weight of 0.756) have been ranked highest.

Keywords

References

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Strategic Defense Studies
Volume 21, Issue 92 - Serial Number 92
21st year, number 92- summer 1402
June 2023
Pages 139-160

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