Investigating the rise of ISIS in Iraq and the fall of Mosul From the perspective of military security surprise

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD in National Security Studies, Higher National Defense University

2 کارشناس ارشد علوم سیاسی دانشگاه آزاد تهران مرکز

3 PhD Student in National Security, Higher National Defense University

4 PhD Student in Strategic Cyberspace Management, Higher National Defense University

Abstract

By formation of the resistant front in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and by developing strategic depth of Islamic Revolution, reciprocal actions of enemies have engulfed mentioned countries as well. One of those actions is enjoying the Sunni Muslim’s potentials with Salafi and Vahhabi approach. The topic states that I.R of Iran must take care until not being faced with surprised failure not only in its territory but also in the resistant country.
In this article the researchers are following to answer the main question as: Has I.R of Iran been faced with surprised failure in Iraq and collapse of Mosul? If yes, the following subordinate questions are being answered: 1- What where the reasons of Iran’s surprised failure in collapse of Mosul? 2- What are the preventive ways of military-security surprised failure by approach, structural and methodical in the future?
The following research has been raised as developing and practical and by merging qualitative and quantitative inputs, as well as 3 open-ended questionnaires and mixed method has been used. The time territory is from resuming Islamic Revolution.
To answer the questions, by studying upstream/high level documents, expert interviews and comparison studies 9 components and 60 attributes from surprised failure field have been discovered. By arranging expert meeting and 3 questionnaires all the ideas have received, so that we found the essence of the failure in Mosul was ignorance and treason. Reasons and factors of surprised failure have been studied and analyzed by AHP method. Finally, weaknesses and reasons of surprised failure have structural, methodical and logical approach as course of actions.

Keywords

References

  • فهرست منابع

    • "قرآن کریم"
    • امام خمینی (رحمت ا... علیه)، "صحیفه نور"، تهران، دفتر حفظ و نشر آثار امام (رحمت ا... علیه)
    • امام خامنه‌ای (مدظله­العالی)، "مجموعه بیانات"، قابل‌دسترسی در: Khamenei.ir

    الف- منابع فارسی:

     خاورمیانه"، مجله سیاست خارجی، زمستان 1394، شماره 4

    ب- منابع انگلیسی:

    • Dickinson, Eric (2013). "Strategic Surprise". Journal of Singapore Armed Forces, Journal V24 N3, Jul-Sep 1998
    • Lee Wai Keong, Christopher (1998). "Strategic Surprise". Journal of Singapore Armed Forces, Journal V24 N3, Jul-Sep 1998
    • Schwartz, Peter and Randall, Dough (2007). "Ahead of the Curve: Anticipating Strategic Surprise", Blindeside: How To Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics. Brookings Institution Press.
    • Witts‌, Tamara (2015). "the Regional Impact of U.S Policy toward Iraq and Syria", London: University of California Press.
Strategic Defense Studies
Volume 19, Issue 86 - Serial Number 86
Nineteenth Year, No. 86 - Winter 1400
January 2022
Pages 53-78

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