Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Associate Professor and Faculty Member of the Higher National Defense University
2
PhD student in Strategic Defense Sciences, Higher National Defense University
Abstract
The 33-day war waged in 2006 by the Zionist regime against Lebanon, especially Hezbollah, is one of the most important and influential developments in the region of Southwest Asia. The Zionist regime's large-scale invasion of Lebanon in July 2006, which lasted 33 days, marked a turning point in the Arab-Israeli conflict. The 33-day war, which is in fact the sixth war between the Arabs and the Zionist regime, is longer and unique in its kind than the previous wars of the Zionist regime, and is of extraordinary and unique importance in various dimensions. Because in this heavy and comprehensive battle, the Zionist regime did not achieve the goals it had set for itself before the war with the coordination and support of the United States. Thus, the Zionist regime's massive aggression ended with the victory of the Islamic Resistance fighters, and as a result of this success, the internal equations of Lebanon, the Zionist regime and the region underwent new and fundamental changes. This article seeks a wise answer to the main question: Did Lebanon's Hezbollah take a surprise start at the beginning of the Zionist regime's attack? If Hezbollah's Lebanese surprise at the start of the war is confirmed, side questions will arise: 1- What were the causes and factors of Hezbollah's surprise in Lebanon at the beginning of the war? 2- What are the solutions to prevent military and security surprises in terms of approach, structure and method in the future?
This research is one of the applied research researches and a combination of quantitative and qualitative data including interviews and questionnaires (open and closed) as well as descriptive and analytical research methods with a mixed approach have been used. The size of the statistical population and the selection of members of the community was targeted at 40 people. The scope of this research is chronologically, a few months before the start of the 33-day war of the Zionist regime against Lebanon (July 2006) until the end of 2006, and spatially within the sphere of influence of the Islamic Revolution and thematically providing a solution to prevent military-security surprises. In the following, the causes and factors of surprise are examined by AHP method and finally, to eliminate the weaknesses and causes of surprise, approach, structural and methodological solutions are provided, Finally, in order to answer the research questions, while studying the upstream documents, 9 components and 60 items in the field of surprise were counted And in the form of three questionnaires and the holding of think tanks, the opinions of experts were obtained and it was determined that Hezbollah in Lebanon was not surprised at the beginning of the 33-day war.
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