Geopolitical Implications of the Expansion of Türkiye's Military Relations with the Central Asian Republics for the Defense Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran

The expansion of military and defense cooperation between Türkiye and the Central Asian republics in recent years has introduced significant structural and competitive transformations into the geopolitical environment surrounding the Islamic Republic of Iran. This study aims to examine the geopolitical implications of Ankara's expanding military engagement with the regional states for Iran's defense policy and to propose appropriate strategic approaches for managing the resulting security dynamics. The research adopts a mixed-methods approach using a descriptive-analytical design. Qualitative data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 64 experts and analyzed using thematic coding in MAXQDA, while quantitative data were processed through descriptive indices and inferential statistical analyses. The findings indicate that Türkiye, by leveraging its technological capabilities, defense exports and assembly of military equipment, the concept of the Army of Turan, and the establishment of Turkic-centered security mechanisms, seeks to consolidate its position as a leading regional military power while diminishing the influence of Iran, Russia, and China in Central Asia. In contrast, Iran's approach is primarily based on intelligence cooperation, counterterrorism efforts, the security control of transit corridors, and the strengthening of indigenous defense industries. The results further confirm the persistence of strategic divergences between the two countries in such areas as Türkiye's support for NATO, the regional arms competition, and the formation of parallel security arrangements. Overall, the study concludes that the emergence of a new geopolitical balance in Central Asia necessitates the activation of Iran's military diplomacy, the expansion of multilateral defense partnerships, the promotion of joint defense production, and the enhancement of regional security mechanisms to contain the growing influence of competing actors.